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Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake
Cisternas M.a, Atwater B.F., Torrejon F.c, Sawai Y., Machuca G.c, Lagos M.e, Eipert A.f, Youlton C.a, Salgado I.a, Kamataki T., Shishikura M., Rajendran C.P.g, Malik J.K.h, Rizal Y.i, Husni M.j
a Facultad de Agronomía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Chile
b US Geological Survey, University of Washington, United States
c Centro EULA-Chile, Universidad de Concepción, Chile
d Active Fault Research Center, Geological Survey of Japan, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Japan
e Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Chile
f National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States
g Centre for Earth Science Studies, India
h Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, India
i Geological Department, Institute of Technology, Indonesia
j Potential Geophysics Division, Meteorological and Geophysical Agency of Indonesia, Indonesia
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624529070653{padding-top: 30px !important;padding-bottom: 30px !important;}”][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner layout=”boxed”][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″ css=”.vc_custom_1624695412187{border-right-width: 1px !important;border-right-color: #dddddd !important;border-right-style: solid !important;border-radius: 1px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Abstract” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text]It is commonly thought that the longer the time since last earthquake, the larger the next earthquake’s slip will be. But this logical predictor of earthquake size, unsuccessful for large earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, fails also with the giant 1960 Chile earthquake of magnitude 9.5 (ref. 3). Although the time since the preceding earthquake spanned 123 years (refs 4, 5), the estimated slip in 1960, which occurred on a fault between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, equalled 250-350 years’ worth of the plate motion. Thus the average interval between such giant earthquakes on this fault should span several centuries. Here we present evidence that such long intervals were indeed typical of the last two millennia. We use buried soils and sand layers as records of tectonic subsidence and tsunami inundation at an estuary midway along the 1960 rupture. In these records, the 1960 earthquake ended a recurrence interval that had begun almost four centuries before, with an earthquake documented by Spanish conquistadors in 1575. Two later earthquakes, in 1737 and 1837, produced little if any subsidence or tsunami at the estuary and they therefore probably left the fault partly loaded with accumulated plate motion that the 1960 earthquake then expended. © 2005 Nature Publishing Group.[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Author keywords” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text]Chile,Earthquake size,Strike-slip fault,Tectonic plates[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Indexed keywords” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Funding details” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text]Acknowledgements This work was supported by Chile’s Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico (Fondecyt) and by the US Geological Survey. Logistical help came from the Municipality of Maullín and its people (M. I. Silva, P. Soto, R. Vergara, J. Gallardo, G. Andrade, J. Soarzo and C. Ruiz), and from the Servicio Hidrológico y Oceanográfico of the Armada de Chile. The manuscript incorporates suggestions from S. Barrientos, S. Bondevik, C. Lomnitz, A. Nelson, K. Wang, J. Clague and E. Geist.[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”DOI” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text]https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03943[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_column_text]Widget Plumx[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][/vc_column][/vc_row]