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Study of earthquake forecast through hazard rate analysis
Sunusi N.a,c, Darwis S.a, Triyoso W.a, Mangku I.W.b
a Statistics Research Group, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia
b Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Indonesia
c Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Haluoleo University, Indonesia
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624529070653{padding-top: 30px !important;padding-bottom: 30px !important;}”][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner layout=”boxed”][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″ css=”.vc_custom_1624695412187{border-right-width: 1px !important;border-right-color: #dddddd !important;border-right-style: solid !important;border-radius: 1px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Abstract” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text]Earthquake forecast is defined as the probability that at least one event takes place in the future interval. Until now, study of earthquake forecast is still a challenge problem. One of the central issues in earthquake forecast is estimating earthquake hazard rate. The standard approach in such estimation is to use the likelihood of point processes. This paper propose a new approach named single decrement method, where the basic data are entry time, exit time, and number of occurrences. Our previous result shows that a single decrement approach is an alternative approach that can be used to estimate the earthquake hazard rate. Using a parametric hazard rate model, we developed an earthquake occurrence forecast. As an illustration, the data taken from an earthquake catalogue will be considered. The result is that the probability that at least one event takes place in the future interval in one region has increase as a function of elapsed time. © 2010 by IJAMAS, CESER Publications.[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Author keywords” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text]Alternative approach,Decrement method,Earthquake forecast,Earthquake hazard,Exit time,Hazard rate model,Hazard rates,New approaches,Point process[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Indexed keywords” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text]Earthquake forecast,Hazard rate,Single decrement[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Funding details” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”DOI” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_column_text]Widget Plumx[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][/vc_column][/vc_row]