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The orbital evolution of asteroid 367943 Duende (2012 DA14) under Yarkovsky effect influence and its implications for collision with the earth
Utama J.A.a,b, Hidayat T.a, Fauzi U.a
a Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, 40132, Indonesia
b Physics Education Department, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia, Bandung, 40154, Indonesia
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624529070653{padding-top: 30px !important;padding-bottom: 30px !important;}”][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner layout=”boxed”][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″ css=”.vc_custom_1624695412187{border-right-width: 1px !important;border-right-color: #dddddd !important;border-right-style: solid !important;border-radius: 1px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Abstract” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text]© School of Engineering, Taylor’s University.Asteroid 367943 Duende (2012 DA14) holds the record as the one of Aten subpopulation with H ≤ 24 that had experienced deep close encounter event to the Earth (0.09x Earth-Moon distance) as informed in NASA website. In this work, we studied the orbital evolution of 120 asteroid clones and the nominal up to 5 Megayears (Myr) in the future using Swift integrator package with and without the Yarkovsky effect inclusion. At the end of orbital integration with both integrators, we found as many as 17 asteroid clones end their lives as Earth impactor. The prediction of maximum semimajor axis drift for this subkilometer-sized asteroid from diurnal and seasonal variants of Yarkovsky effect was 9.0×10-3 AU/Myr and 2.6×10-4 AU/Myr, respectively. By using the MOID (Minimum Orbital Intersection Distance) data set calculated from our integrators of entire clones and nominal asteroids, we obtained the value of impact rate with the Earth of 2.35×10-7 per year (with Yarkovsky effect) and 2.37×10-7 per year (without Yarkovsky effect), which corresponds to a mean lifetime of 4.25 Myr and 4.22 Myr, respectively. The Wilcoxon Rank Sum test with a confidence level of 95% shows that the MOID data set from both integrators does not have a significant difference. This statistical test result shows that the influence of close encounters with planets in the inner Solar System on asteroid 2012 DA14 is more dominant than the Yarkovsky effect, which is consistent with asteroid short residence time for Yarkovsky force to grow up its small effect.[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Author keywords” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Indexed keywords” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text]Impact probability,Near-Earth asteroid,Orbital evolution,Yarkovsky effect[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Funding details” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”DOI” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_column_text]Widget Plumx[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][/vc_column][/vc_row]