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Verification of upper Citarum River discharge prediction using climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) output
Lestari L.P.P.a, Arya D.K.a, Suwarman R.a, Syahputra M.R.a
a Department of Meteorology, Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624529070653{padding-top: 30px !important;padding-bottom: 30px !important;}”][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner layout=”boxed”][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″ css=”.vc_custom_1624695412187{border-right-width: 1px !important;border-right-color: #dddddd !important;border-right-style: solid !important;border-radius: 1px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Abstract” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text]© 2018 Author(s).Citarum River serves as a water supplier for the main reservoir in West Java, namely Saguling Reservoir. The river discharge prediction is important for reservoir operations and flood control. This study investigated the usefulness of Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) data output to predict the Upper Citarum discharge. We statistically downscaled the CFSv2 output to derive the local climate prediction and then incorporated the result to hydrological model to obtain the discharge prediction. The statistical downscaling method used in this research is Multi Windows Constructed Analogue (CA) method using velocity potential (χ) and stream function (ψ) at 850 hPa as predictors and daily rainfall as predictand. The windows used are Australian Monsoon Index (AUSMI) and Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI). The daily rainfall prediction was then used as an input for the Soil and Water Assessment Toll (SWAT) hydrological model to generate discharge prediction in the Upper Citarum basin. In this study, we investigated how well the prediction system predict low discharge event of <54.8 m3/s which influences the turbine movement in Saguling Power House. Our verifications were done in the period of December-January-February 2011 – 2016, using Brier Score and Brier Skill Score. The result showed that CFSv2 is able to represent the event of low discharge event that occurs for 10 to 14 days in one month with good accuracy and skill. In addition, the prediction system has a fairly good accuracy in predicting high discharge categories in the same period, so it can also be used as information to mitigate the occurrence of high discharge that will cause flooding.[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=".vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}"][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title="Author keywords" size="size-sm" text_align="text-left"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=".vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}"][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title="Indexed keywords" size="size-sm" text_align="text-left"][vc_column_text]Brier Score,Constructed Analogue Multi-windows,Discharge Prediction,Hydrological Model,Statistical Downscaling[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=".vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}"][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title="Funding details" size="size-sm" text_align="text-left"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=".vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}"][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title="DOI" size="size-sm" text_align="text-left"][vc_column_text]https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5047325[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_column_text]Widget Plumx[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][/vc_column][/vc_row]