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Verification of seasonal prediction for maize crop water balance using constructed analogue method (Case study: Garut Regency, West Java, Indonesia)
Yusron M.H.A.a, Syahputra M.R.a, Fajary F.R.a
a Department of Meteorology, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624529070653{padding-top: 30px !important;padding-bottom: 30px !important;}”][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner layout=”boxed”][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″ css=”.vc_custom_1624695412187{border-right-width: 1px !important;border-right-color: #dddddd !important;border-right-style: solid !important;border-radius: 1px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Abstract” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text]© 2018 Author(s).Maize crop is considered as a strategic agricultural commodity. West Java Province is one of the national maize production centers, with the main location of the producer is Garut Regency. Unfortunately, thousands of hectares of maize in Garut Regency had experienced crop failure in 2012 due to drought. This drought caused maize crops to experienced water deficit which could be known from their water balance state. Thus, it is important to make seasonal predictions of maize crop water balance in Garut Regency. In this study, the method used for seasonal prediction is Constructed Analogue (CA). Verification is required on this prediction to acquire its skill before being performed operationally. In this study, the output of Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model is downscaled using CA method. The predictors are stream function (ψ) and velocity potential (χ) at 850 hPa level, whereas the predictand is rainfall. The predicted rainfall is then processed into effective rainfall which will be used along with evapotranspiration of maize crop to calculate the maize water balance. The predicted water balance is verified using Brier score, Brier skill score, and reliability diagram. Prediction of maize water balance surplus using CA method has good accuracy and skill in planting period 1 (November – February), 2 (March – June), and 3 (July – October). The prediction of maize water balance deficit tends to have low accuracy and no skill in planting period 2, but has moderate accuracy and low skill in planting period 3. The reliability of maize water balance surplus and deficit prediction in planting period 2 and 3 is classified as marginally useful for decision-making. The accuracy and skill difference between prediction of maize water balance from lead-1 season and lead-2 season is not significant.[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Author keywords” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Indexed keywords” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text]Constructed Analogue,maize crop water balance,seasonal prediction[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Funding details” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text]This research was financially supported by Research Program for Community Service and Innovation Bandung Institute of Technology.[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”DOI” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text]https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5047328[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_column_text]Widget Plumx[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][/vc_column][/vc_row]