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One-step and Multi-step Performance Ratio Prediction of Solar Power Plants Using Time Series ARIMA
Bandong S.a, Joelianto E.a, Leksono E.a, Purwarianti A.a, Haq I.N.a
a Control and Automation Laboratory, Faculty of Industrial Technology, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624529070653{padding-top: 30px !important;padding-bottom: 30px !important;}”][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner layout=”boxed”][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″ css=”.vc_custom_1624695412187{border-right-width: 1px !important;border-right-color: #dddddd !important;border-right-style: solid !important;border-radius: 1px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Abstract” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text]© 2020, Internetworking Indonesia Journal. All Rights Reserved.The Internet of Things is very useful for real-time data acquisition and field monitoring. The results can be analyzed to improve system reliability and efficiency. One object of the system that requires this is a renewable energy system such as a Solar Power Plant. Performance ratio is a measure of the performance of solar power plants. Its value will determine the increase in energy costs over time. It is therefore important that its value can be predicted in the future. However, because of its fluctuating value, it needs to be decomposed before the trend value is taken. The value of this trend will be predicted later. ARIMA is used as a method for predicting time series. One-step and multi-step predictions are applied and compared. The ARIMA prediction results are compared with other methods such as SVM and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). Obtained by ARIMA, the prediction results are more accurate than SVM and MLR which are marked with the smallest RMSE value, 0.008 and the closest R2 to 1, 0.98. One-step prediction also shows higher prediction accuracy compared to multi-step predictions.[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Author keywords” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Indexed keywords” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text]Multi-Step Prediction,One-Step Prediction,Performance Ratio,Solar Power Plant[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”Funding details” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][vc_empty_space][megatron_heading title=”DOI” size=”size-sm” text_align=”text-left”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_column_text]Widget Plumx[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator css=”.vc_custom_1624528584150{padding-top: 25px !important;padding-bottom: 25px !important;}”][/vc_column][/vc_row]